AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures are trading 2 to 2 1/4 cents lower in the nearby contracts at midday. Total accumulated corn export commitments are now 118.81% of last year’s total to this point. Compared to the USDA projected export total, corn commitments are 98% complete, vs. last year’s and the 5 year average of 99%. Argentina’s Ag ministry increased their country’s 16/17 corn production number 1 MMT to 47.5 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange is at 39 MMT, with the USDA estimating 40 MMT. This Friday, China sold 1.171 MMT of the 2.235 MMT of corn from 2013 at an auction of state reserves. Chinese May corn imports shrank to 95% of last year’s May total at 42,219 MT.

Jul 17 Corn is at $3.60 3/4, down 2 cents,

Sep 17 Corn is at $3.68 3/4, down 2 cents,

Dec 17 Corn is at $3.78 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents

Mar 18 Corn is at $3.88 1/2, down 2 cents

Soybeans

Soybean futures are showing losses of 2 to 4 1/4 cents on Friday, after a week that has seen nothing but red. July 17 soy meal is down 80 cents , with soy oil 10 points higher in the front month. Soybean export commitments are still 18.3% larger compared to last year. They are 106% of the current WASDE forecast, compared to 98% last year and the average of 100%. The implication is that USDA sees an unusually steep decline in July and August because of South American shipments. The Argentine ag ministry lowered their 2016/17 soybean production estimate to 57 MMT from 58 MMT. Data from Chinese customs shows that 9.586 MMT of soybeans were imported during May, up 25% from the previous May. Specifically, the imports from the US rose 66.2% yr/yr to 1.47 MMT.

Jul 17 Soybeans are at $9.02, down 2 cents,

Aug 17 Soybeans are at $9.06 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents,

Sep 17 Soybeans are at $9.06 3/4, down 3 cents,

Nov 17 Soybeans are at $9.09, down 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 17 Soybean Meal is at $293.00, down $0.80

Jul 17 Soybean Oil is at $31.65, up $0.10

Wheat

Wheat futures are steady to 4 cents higher in the KC and CBT contracts, with MPLS showing strong gains of 11 to 13 3/4 cents in the front months. The Governor of North Dakota has declared a state of emergency in parts of the State that are experiencing extreme drought. Total US export commitments for 17/18 are 7.7% ahead of last year, and 28% of the USDA projected export total, vs. 26% last year and the average of 27%. The French AgriMer rated the country’s soft wheat crop at 68% good/excellent, down 6% from the previous week. Hot weather and low precipitation are harming the crop there. Bunge estimates that Argentina’s wheat production for 2017/18 will be 20MMT, with 13 MMT in exports, up 2.7 MMT from the previous year.

Jul 17 CBOT Wheat is at $4.65 1/4, up 4 cents,

Jul 17 KCBT Wheat is at $4.70 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents,

Jul 17 MGEX Wheat is at $6.70, up 13 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures are mostly 2.5 to 22.5 cents in the red ahead of the USDA COF report. Feeder cattle futures, on the contrary are up 22.5 to 47.5 cent in the nearby contracts. The CME feeder cattle index was up 11 cents on June 21 at $148.18. Wholesale beef prices were mixed in the morning report, with choice boxes sharply lower, down $3.38 at $239.50. Select was up 9 cents, with an average of $217.01. Cash trade is likely done for the week as sales ranged from $119 to $123. Estimated FI cattle slaughter through Thursday was 465,000 head, 2,000 head fewer than last week and 17,000 head more than the same week a year ago. Total beef export commitments are 12.1% larger than last year at this point. In a press release, the USDA stated they had been inspecting every load from Brazil since March and have rejected nearly 11% of the 17.27 million pounds. That is a small number vs. typical US annual imports of 3 billion pounds. The USDA Cold Storage report last night showed May beef stocks down 10.57% from May 2016 and 9.94% lower than April at 412.872 million pounds.

Jun 17 Cattle are at $118.600, down $0.025,

Aug 17 Cattle are at $114.150, down $0.125,

Oct 17 Cattle are at $111.775, down $0.225,

Aug 17 Feeder Cattle are at $143.925, up $0.475

Sep 17 Feeder Cattle are at $143.350, up $0.375

Oct 17 Feeder Cattle are at $141.675, up $0.225

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures are showing losses of 10 cents to $1.525 at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index for 6/21 was up another $1.27 to $89.30. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up $1.42 in the morning report, with a weighted average of $100.94. All primal but the ham were higher. The national base hog carcass price was 75 cents lower with a weighted average of $85.29 in the morning report. Prices ranged from $85.00-$87.00. FI hog slaughter was estimated at 1,723,000 head through Thursday, 13,000 more than last week and 37,000 head above last year. Accumulated pork export commitments are 5.6% above a year ago. Thursday afternoon’s Cold Storage report saw May stocks at 592.127 million pounds, down 3.89% from last year and down 1.17% from April. Chicken wing supplies tightened dramatically, but breast meat is abundant for summer grilling features.

Jul 17 Hogs are at $84.925, down $0.100,

Aug 17 Hogs are at $78.350, down $1.525

Oct 17 Hogs are at $67.525, down $1.350

Cotton

Cotton futures are higher on Friday, as most contracts are up 11 to 40 points. The new AWP is 64.60 cents/lb through next Thursday, a drop of 2.71 cents/lb from the previous week. All upland cotton export commitments are 64% larger than last year. The Cotlook A index for June 22 dropped 40 points to 82.60 cents/lb. Customs data shows Chinese May imports were up a total of 8.56% since the previous May at 85,482 MT. Of that total 61.52% was from the US, as China May imports from the US rose 52.75% yr/yr.

Jul 17 Cotton is at 71.47, up 33 points,

Oct 17 Cotton is at 68.43, up 40 points

Dec 17 Cotton is at 66.85, up 11 points

Mar 18 Cotton is at 66.930, up 26 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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