Stewart-Peterson Market Commentary

Closing Commentary - June 23, 2017

Top Farmer Midday Update 6-23-17

CORN:Corn futures are steady to a penny lower, under pressure with Jul options expiring today. The Jul contract is down 3/4 cent to 3.62 and has been gravitating towards the 3.60 level. The Dec contract has traded today as low as 3.78, the lowest Dec corn price of the year so far, but has since rebounded and is currently trading at 3.79-1/2. Rain last night across much of the Midwest and benign forecasts for the weekend are currently pressuring.

SOYBEANS:Soybean futures are steady at midday today, with the Jul contract up 1 cent to 9.05 and Nov down 2 cents to 9.11-1/4. The lowest trade in the Nov contract today of 9.08-1/4 has been the lowest trade for the Nov 2017 contract since 8/2/2016. Judging by expiring soybean options, the close for the Jul is likely to be between 9.00 and 9.10. Rain last night, as well as wet and cool forecasts, should alleviate some stress caused by dryness earlier this month.

WHEAT:All wheat contracts are higher this morning, with Sep Chi wheat up 3 cents to 4.78-1/4, Sep KC wheat up 2-3/4 to 4.88-1/2, and Sep Mpls wheat up 16-3/4 to 6.75. With as much rain as the eastern part of the Midwest has received lately, beneficial rainfalls continue to miss the Dakotas. As of yesterday, 100% of North Dakota and 84% of South Dakota are experiencing abnormally dry to drought conditions.

CATTLE:Cattle futures are steady this morning as traders pause before this afternoon's Cattle on Feed report. The nearby Jun contract is even at 118.62, Aug is up a nickel to 114.32, and Oct is a dime lower to 111.90. Yesterday's Cold Storage report was bullish for prices, with significant reductions to frozen beef stocks, but traders are waiting to take futures higher in hopes that today's Cattle on Feed report is supportive.

HOGS:Hog futures are under pressure this morning after conflicting opinions on cold storage numbers released yesterday afternoon. The nearby Jul contract is down 10 cents to 84.92, Aug is down 1.67 to 78.20, and Oct is down 1.40 to 67.47. Frozen pork stocks in May were down 0.5% from April and 3.6% down from last May. This is a much smaller reduction than is normal, but frozen belly stocks in May were down 6% from April and 59% from last May. In the summer, such tight belly stocks should be supportive for pork prices. The Chi lean hog cash index is up 1.27 to 89.30.

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