AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Futures 5 to 6 Lower To Begin Week

Corn futures are trading 5 to 6 cents lower this morning on more moderate Midwest weather. They closed the Friday session with most contracts 5 to 6 1/4 cents higher after a week of losses. Preliminary open interest showed long liquidation, with OI down 2,548 contracts. From Friday to Friday, Sep dropped 5.17%. Spillover buying from soybeans and wheat was supportive at the end of the week, along with Fed easing talk. Cooler Corn Belt temps this week are a negative, helpful as more of the crop reaches the pollination stage. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report indicated that spec traders in corn futures and options were net long 187,260 contracts as of Tuesday. Commercials were net short 522,525 contracts on that date, nearing a record number of short positions (1.134 million). Safras & Mercado expect the 19/20 Brazilian corn crop to total 103.97 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market 2 to 3 Cents Lower

Soybean futures are 2 to 3 cents lower to begin your Monday. They saw 20 1/4 cent gains in the front months on Friday. That partially offset losses from the other 4 trade sessions, as Aug was down 1.29% for the full week. Preliminary open interest shows some light net buying at 530 contracts. August soybean meal was up $4.20/ton, with soy oil up 46 points. Rumors of Chinese requests for quotes also encouraged the short covering. Estimates from Safras & Mercado show expected 19/20 soybean production in Brazil at a record 123.788 MMT, with acreage seen up 0.8% from last year. Friday afternoon’s CFTC report indicated money managers in soybean futures and options backing off their net short position by 2,999 contracts to -38,935 contracts.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets Down 1 to 5 Cents Ahead of Tour

Wheat futures are 1 to 5 cents lower across the three markets after ending the Friday session with most contracts 3 to 9 cents higher. Shorts took some of their winnings off the table ahead of the weekend. There was also some net new buying interest in Chicago, with preliminary open interest up 1,550 contracts. Over the course of the week CBT lost 3.92%, with KC 5.83% and MPLS 2.3% lower. The spring wheat quality tour is being held this week, which should contribute to our understanding of the MPLS HRS crop. CFTC data showed specs in KC wheat trimmed 1,649 contracts from their net short position to 16,156 contracts. In CBT wheat they cut 11,623 contracts from that net long position to 18,751 contracts. They showed a record net short position in MPLS wheat on Tuesday at -13,027 contracts. The French wheat harvest is now 33% complete, a 24% move over the past week. The French crop has been stressed by hot and dry temps, with yield estimates declining.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Sees No Expansion in US Herd

Live cattle futures posted 20 to 77.5 cent gains in most contracts on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were up 30 to 55 cents. NASS reported all cattle and calves at 103 million head, unch from last year. Beef cows were also steady at 32.4 mil head, with replacement heifers at 4.4 mil head, down 4.3% from last year. July 1 cattle on feed were shown up 1.75% from last year at 11.485 mil head, with June placements down 2.34% at 1.756 mil head and marketings down 3.04% at 1.945 mil head. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.33 @ $138.67 on July 18. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon with Choice boxes up 8 cents per cwt at $213.42 and Select boxes 90 cents higher @ $189.51. USDA estimated week to date FI cattle slaughter at 651,000 head through Saturday. Cash trade last week was mostly $111 in the South and $182-185 dressed in the North. After 11 weeks of liquidation, managed money added back 3,690 contracts to their CFTC net long position to put it at 25,443 contracts on Tuesday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog Futures & Products Firming

Lean Hog futures settled with 42.5 cent to $2.025 gains in most contract on Friday, as Aug was up 4% for the week. There was definitely some new buying interest, with preliminary open interest rising 8,301 contracts on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 17 cents from the previous day on July 16 @ $70.79. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up another $1.93 at $78.53. The picnic and butt were the only primals lower. The national average base hog value was up 79 cents on Friday at $72.48. Estimated FI hog slaughter last week was 2.303 million head. That was down 107,000 head from the previous week and 75,000 head below the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Up 15 to 57 Points As Exposed Shorts Cut Back

Cotton futures are trading 15 to 57 points higher, extending Friday’s short covering rally. They were up 104 to 152 points in most contracts on Friday. Friday afternoon’s Commitment of Traders report showed another record reported net short position for spec traders in cotton futures and options on Tuesday at 44,270 contracts. Upland cotton export commitments are now 115% of the USDA projection, with the average pace running 107%. With just under a month left in the MY, however, accumulated exports are 91% of that number, with the normal pace at 95%. The Cotlook A index for July 18 was down 50 points from the previous day at 73.70 cents/lb. The weekly AWP is 55.81 cents/lb effective through next Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353