Grains Report 02/15/19

WHEAT
General Comments Winter Wheat markets were lower. Attitudes on Wheat prices remain generally positive, but the market has struggled to move higher. Traders are starting to look ahead and hope for warmer weather and the day when Wheat can break dormancy. It looks like the crop will have plenty of moisture for initial development. However, there are questions as to how much Winter Wheat got planted last year. There are those that say that abandoned acres will also be significant, so there is a chance for a very small crop. The smaller planted area came because of very bad planting weather in the Great Plains and Midwest and low prices. The Fall season in both regions featured a lot of rain that hurt harvest and planting all season long.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather with light snow possible this weekend. Temperatures should be above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather, but a little light snow is possible this weekend. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry conditions, but light snow is possible today and Friday. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 504, 501, and 500 March, with resistance at 513, 519, and 524 March. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 477 and 462 March. Support is at 480, 477, and 474 March, with resistance at 488, 490, and 494 March. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with objectives of 598 and 616 March. Support is at 575, 569, and 563 March, and resistance is at 582, 584, and 585 March.

RICE
General Comments: Rice was mostly lower again yesterday on speculative trading. Much of the day featured traders rolling from March to May contracts before the deliveries start at the end of the month. The trade will concentrate now on the weather and any potential planting delays as well as any new demand news. Delays in initial fieldwork are being reported in Texas, but longer term forecasts are giving hope that Gulf area producers can get started in the next month or so. USDA is slowly releasing its weekly export sales reports and should be caught up within 10 days. The export pace has been very solid so far and the trade will look for good demand to continue. Private sources suggest that domestic mills are slowly but surely getting covered on needs for the current crop year.
Overnight News: The Delta should get chances for precipitation late this week. Temperatures should be mostly above normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends are down with objectives of 1017 March. Support is at 1010, 1006, and 1000 March, with resistance at 1025, 1034, and 1036 March.

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn was lower on weak export sales. Support came from reports of good progress in the trade talks in China and in the border and government shutdown talks in Washington. Ideas of improving demand for Ethanol as temperatures start to turn warmer in the YS also were supportive as overall gasoline demand should start to increase. Trade attention will now turn to Washington as it moves to resolve trade problems with China, Europe, and Japan, among others, and pushes for passage of the new North American trade agreement. China and the US are meeting now and there are hopes that a lot of progress can be made. South American weather is improving as some showers are reported now in central and northern Brazil. The Winter Corn crop is being planted as Soybeans get harvested, so the rains are very beneficial after an extended dry season. Current short-term patterns suggest that futures should not be able to move below 365 March.
Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 205,744 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with objectives of 371, 368, and 367 March. Support is at 372, 371, and 370 March, and resistance is at 379, 381, and 382 March. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 274 and 270 March. Support is at 281, 280, and 277 March, and resistance is at 288, 289, and 294 March.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were lower on weak export sales and despite reports of good progress in the trade negotiations in China and on the government shutdown and border talks in Washington. China and the US started a new round of meetings this week and hopes for progress are great but details of any agreement are hard to find. Brazil has reduced production, but Argentine production appears good, and both countries are now offering at prices that compete with the US for sales. On the other hand, producers in the Americas are not real interested in selling right now due to lower prices. The supplies for the world are there but will need to be pried out of the hands of the sellers. That is true in the US and in South America. Brazil is now over a quarter harvested, but there is not much pricing being done due to Real strength and Soybeans prices at current levels. Trends are sideways on the weekly charts for these markets, and the fundamentals of big supplies might keep rallies in check.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 891 and 875 March. Support is at 900, 891, and 889 March, and resistance is at 910, 914, and 920 March. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 305.00, 304.00, and 301.00 March, and resistance is at 308.00, 310.00, and 312.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with no objectives. Support is at 2970, 2950, and 2910 March, with resistance at 3030, 3050, and 3070 March.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower. Bear spreads appeared active as selling was seen in nearby months and buying in deferred months. Ideas of big supplies are hurting nearby prices. There is talk of improved export demand, but most of the rally came on ideas that the market needed a corrective bounce after the selling seen on Monday. Wire reports indicate that the overall export demand is still down this year. Chart trends are trying to turn up again. Palm Oil was lower, but held the weekly low. Ideas of less production in Malaysia helped support futures, but weaker outside markets were negative.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are 674,129 tons so far this month, from 647,062 tons last month. AmSpec said that sales were 685,779 tons, from 607,220 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to down with objectives of 465.00 and 428.00 March. Support is at 474.00, 471.00, and 465.00 March, with resistance at 483.00, 486.00, and 489.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to down with objectives of 2230 and 2170 April. Support is at 2250, 2230, and 2200 April, with resistance at 2290, 2310, and 2340 April.

DJ Canadian Grain Handling Summary – Feb 15
WINNIPEG–The following are Canadian grain handling summary statistics
for the week ended Feb. 10, 2019. Figures in thousands of metric tons.
Source: Canadian Grain Commission.
Durum
Wheat Oats Barley Flax Canola Peas Corn Total*
COMMERCIAL STOCKS
This week 2770.3 879.3 245.6 379.5 46.8 994.7 364.4 404.0 6869.8
Week ago 2935.5 887.0 246.9 455.4 49.6 1061.1 394.4 412.8 7264.1
Year ago 2936.6 576.4 216.0 471.6 64.6 1380.2 257.0 148.8 6735.5
PRODUCER DELIVERIES
This Week 266.4 82.1 33.0 82.1 3.9 253.8 38.1 10.1 811.6
Week Ago 329.1 129.2 46.6 88.4 5.4 328.4 71.7 6.6 1052.9
To Date 11930.3 2091.1 1276.1 2122.3 195.2 10259.8 2002.7 306.9 32741.2
Year Ago 9884.6 2217.7 1294.7 1796.9 249.5 10825.8 1587.7 273.1 30786.8
TERMINAL RECEIPTS
This Week 228.6 36.6 7.9 27.9 0.0 121.4 29.5 31.8 520.4
Week Ago 271.4 41.2 0.6 95.8 0.0 137.4 32.8 24.1 674.7
To Date 11564.7 2086.0 262.7 1267.1 70.7 5791.2 1086.5 720.0 28045.3
Year Ago 9456.5 2528.9 122.8 925.7 144.4 6233.4 1031.0 499.7 25419.6
EXPORTS
This Week 206.0 121.8 14.6 98.6 2.1 205.5 27.6 32.4 763.5
Week Ago 350.6 23.2 12.7 0.2 1.1 207.5 30.6 0.0 685.2
To Date 9810.9 1851.7 851.0 1300.8 136.6 5442.9 1096.3 844.1 25083.1
Year Ago 8401.1 2256.1 902.6 981.9 195.0 5778.7 1080.6 386.4 23125.4
DOMESTIC DISAPPEARANCE
This Week 51.3 1.9 4.8 20.8 1.7 168.4 2.7 19.4 301.4
Week Ago 54.6 2.5 5.0 21.1 1.5 167.7 4.6 24.5 305.9
To Date 2273.9 188.9 158.2 600.9 31.3 5011.5 116.7 650.8 10561.7
Year Ago 2554.4 426.2 134.3 653.2 29.6 4832.4 123.8 346.4 10683.5
*Totals include data from other crops not shown including rye, soybeans,
canary seed, mustard seed, beans, lentils and chickpeas.
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for big precipitation off and on all week and this weekend, but generally starting to turn drier. Temperatures should be near to above normal tomorrow and mostly below normal this weekend and through next week.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
February 63 March 161 March 90 March 41 March -2 March
March 62 March 90 March 36 March
April 51 May 85 May 27 May
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Santos
February
March 65 March -10 March
April 60 May -15 May

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Feb 14
WINNIPEG — The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 464.70 dn 0.40
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 493.70 dn 2.10
2 Can 480.70 dn 2.10
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 506.70 dn 4.10
2 Can 493.70 dn 4.10
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(cnscanada@shaw.ca, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – February 15
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 557.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 562.50 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 580.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 580.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 562.50 -10.00 Unquoted – –
Mar 567.50 -12.50 Unquoted – –
Apr/May/Jun 585.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 585.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 550.00 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 447.50 0.00 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 2,130 -30.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Feb 167.00 0.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR4.0880)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Feb 15
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 117,008 lots, or 4.05 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 3,449 3,449 3,218 3,306 3,290 3,299 9 78 2,032
May-19 3,473 3,476 3,434 3,439 3,488 3,455 -33 104,940 122,672
Jul-19 – – – 3,490 3,490 3,490 0 0 4
Sep-19 3,518 3,525 3,492 3,493 3,537 3,507 -30 10,334 23,028
Nov-19 – – – 3,475 3,475 3,475 0 0 14
Jan-20 3,432 3,437 3,409 3,411 3,440 3,422 -18 1,656 10,304
Corn
Turnover: 410,964 lots, or 7.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 1,811 1,815 1,800 1,814 1,816 1,811 -5 15,904 16,294
May-19 1,831 1,839 1,827 1,836 1,839 1,834 -5 277,436 1,044,478
Jul-19 1,855 1,861 1,851 1,858 1,861 1,858 -3 47,380 30,318
Sep-19 1,860 1,869 1,857 1,862 1,869 1,863 -6 63,292 386,716
Nov-19 1,884 1,891 1,881 1,886 1,891 1,887 -4 470 1,446
Jan-20 1,899 1,904 1,893 1,900 1,901 1,899 -2 6,482 22,536
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,438,098 lots, or 37.39 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 2,634 2,634 2,564 2,565 2,640 2,598 -42 70,390 40,394
May-19 2,605 2,607 2,572 2,581 2,612 2,588 -24 1,066,016 1,742,712
Jul-19 2,631 2,632 2,601 2,605 2,640 2,621 -19 116,626 89,994
Aug-19 2,650 2,650 2,633 2,633 2,665 2,639 -26 6 226
Sep-19 2,668 2,669 2,635 2,641 2,675 2,649 -26 169,830 551,356
Nov-19 2,685 2,686 2,657 2,659 2,691 2,671 -20 3,824 4,800
Dec-19 – – – 2,720 2,720 2,720 0 0 202
Jan-20 2,723 2,727 2,697 2,700 2,730 2,712 -18 11,406 57,990
Palm Oil
Turnover: 333,026 lots, or 15.89 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-19 – – – 4,600 4,600 4,600 0 0 0
Mar-19 4,648 4,648 4,648 4,648 4,756 4,648 -108 2 2
Apr-19 – – – 4,802 4,802 4,802 0 0 20
May-19 4,780 4,788 4,746 4,768 4,772 4,766 -6 298,896 443,196
Jun-19 4,834 4,834 4,782 4,782 4,814 4,798 -16 10 62
Jul-19 – – – 4,866 4,866 4,866 0 0 26
Aug-19 – – – 4,810 4,810 4,810 0 0 2
Sep-19 4,820 4,822 4,790 4,802 4,814 4,804 -10 33,596 77,142
Oct-19 – – – 4,890 4,890 4,890 0 0 24
Nov-19 – – – 4,884 4,884 4,884 0 0 22
Dec-19 4,934 4,934 4,934 4,934 4,950 4,934 -16 2 44
Jan-20 4,888 4,890 4,854 4,864 4,878 4,864 -14 520 2,808
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 255,196 lots, or 14.57 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-19 – – – 5,460 5,460 5,460 0 0 148
May-19 5,720 5,724 5,674 5,680 5,692 5,692 0 211,068 715,232
Jul-19 – – – 5,786 5,786 5,786 0 0 16
Aug-19 – – – 5,688 5,688 5,688 0 0 2
Sep-19 5,800 5,814 5,772 5,778 5,792 5,786 -6 42,686 202,994
Nov-19 – – – 5,882 5,888 5,882 -6 0 4
Dec-19 – – – 5,838 5,838 5,838 0 0 10
Jan-20 5,914 5,914 5,872 5,880 5,902 5,884 -18 1,442 13,580
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.